Features
By Natas46
2010 appears to be the halcyon days for us gamers. As a result of development delays and a certain juggernaut of a video game, some of the top AAA titles that were due out in 2009 “slipped” to 2010 releases. Additionally, with no surefire sales behemoth due out during the second half of 2010, this year's holiday season is shaping up to be amazing.
While this makes 2010 a great time to be a gamer, what does this glut of top games portend for 2011? Is the release of AAA games in the first half of 2010 signaling that the video game industry has finally adapted a modified movie release schedule or is it just an anomaly resulting from unexpected circumstances?
In this first part of this article, we will explore 2010. Are we really seeing a significant departure from the release schedules of prior years? If so, how did circumstances converge to create this anomaly? In the second part of the article, we will explore the prospects for 2011. What AAA titles can we expect to see when so many of the biggest developers are releasing titles in 2010? What other factors will make it more or less likely that we will see top titles in 2011?
Is 2010 Really That Strong of a Year?
Most gamers define the best year for video game releases based on when the games that suit their particular tastes were released. For instance, most of my friends primarily play shooters on the 360. As a result, when I ask them what was the best year of video game releases in this console generation, they instantly respond “2007” (Halo 3, CoD 4). On the other hand, when I ask my PS3 friends that same question, they respond with “2008” (Metal Gear Solid 4, LittleBigPlanet, Resistance 2). So, to understand the relative strength of a year’s releases, I compiled a list of the top releases for each year since 2006 (the launch year of the PS3). Keep in mind that these are the most anticipated and most successful games of each year and may not include every big release. Further, due to personal bias, I do not include any Wii releases.
2006: Oblivion (360); Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter (360); Gears of War (360); Resistance (PS3); Rainbow Six: Vegas (360)
2007: Bioshock (360); Halo 3 (360); The Orange Box (360); Call of Duty 4 (360, PS3); Assassin’s Creed (360, PS3); Uncharted (PS3); Mass Effect (360)
2008: Devil May Cry 4 (360, PS3); Rainbow Six: Vegas 2 (360, PS3); Army of Two (360, PS3); Grand Theft Auto IV (360, PS3); Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3); Battlefield: Bad Company (360, PS3); Fable II (360); Fallout 3 (360, PS3); LittleBigPlanet (PS3); Resistance 2 (PS3); Gears of War 2 (360); Call of Duty: World at War (360, PS3)
2009: Street Fighter IV (360, PS3); Killzone 2 (PS3); Resident Evil 5 (360, PS3); inFamous (PS3); Batman: Arkham Asylum (360, PS3); Halo 3: ODST (360); Uncharted 2 (PS3); CoD: Modern Warfare 2 (360, PS3); Assassin’s Creed II (360, PS3)
2010: Mass Effect 2 (360); MAG (PS3); BioShock 2 (360, PS3); Heavy Rain (PS3); BF: Bad Company 2 (360, PS3); Final Fantasy XIII (360, PS3); God of War III (PS3); Super Street Fighter IV (360, PS3); Alan Wake (360); Red Dead Redemption (360, PS3). Scheduled to release by the end of the year: Medal of Honor (360, PS3); CoD: Black Ops (360, PS3); Agent (PS3); Batman: Arkham Asylum 2 (360, PS3); Fable III (360); Fallout: New Vegas (360, PS3); The Last Guardian (PS3); Gran Turismo 5 (PS3); Halo: Reach (360); LittleBigPlanet 2 (PS3); SOCOM 4 (PS3)
A couple of other observations that I made when putting these lists together: (1) all but one of 2007’s top releases were released in the fourth quarter of the year, so we collectively waited nine months for something to play, while 2009 saw the release of nearly half of its top titles before Q4 ; (2) as the years have passed, it is harder and harder for new IPs to break into the list of top titles; (3) exclusive titles are strongly represented, which makes sense considering that Microsoft and Sony are increasingly advertising their exclusive games rather than the features of the consoles.
There are 20 AAA titles scheduled to be released this year. That tops the previous high of this console generation (2008) by nine titles. While not everyone will agree with the titles that I have defined as AAA titles, it is clear that 2010 is going to be a monster year for video game releases, and this is before the announcements of E3, which will likely add additional 2010 releases to the list (Resistance 3, Killzone 3).
Additionally, there are more than a few games that are due out in 2010 that just failed to make the list (Crackdown 2, Dead Rising 2).
While some of these titles that have been announced for 2010 will slip into 2011 (GT 5), even taking this into account, regardless of what console you own, what kind of games you like, or any other factor you want to add to the consideration, 2010 will be the greatest year of consistent video game releases of this console generation.
How Did This Happen?
So, how is it that so many top games are scheduled to be released in the same year? Part of the explanation is simply the natural growth of the industry. Prior to 2009, every year saw a growth in the number of AAA titles released. This growth has occurred because of the greater understanding of the money that can be made in the video games industry, the progress of the PS3, and more risk averse developers and publishers that have chosen, because of the financial stakes, to invest in top series rather than developing new IPs.
Another factor is Modern Warfare 2. A lot of gamers, like myself, would love to think that 2010 was when developers and publishers finally started scheduling releases throughout the year like the movie industry does, rather than the legacy method of marketing video games like a toy (i.e., clustering releases around the gift-giving season). Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case. 2008 seemed to be moving the industry in this direction, and 2009 actually saw more AAA releases before the holiday season than during it. But, many of the Q1 releases of 2010 were initially announced as 2009 holiday releases. While development delays can always explain a delayed release, it can also be used as a good excuse to avoid competing head-to-head with another title. Modern Warfare 2 was the best selling video game in the history of the industry and everyone, inside and outside the industry, knew that it was going to be HUGE. If you are DICE, developer of Bad Company 2 and a direct competitor of MW2, how much sense does it make to put your game, that you have invested the future of your company into, out in the same launch window as MW2? Even if you have a different kind of game, like BioWare's Mass Effect 2, do you really want to compete with MW2 for the attention of the game-buying public? Clearly, the November 2009 release of MW2 has played a major role in the bounty that gamers have received in early 2010.
In fact, the only AAA first person shooter that was willing to go head-to-head with MW2 in the second half of 2009 was Bungie's Halo 3: ODST, but Bungie's motivation to release their competing title had little to do with ensuring the success of their title.
Soon after the release of Halo 3, Bungie negotiated a release from their commitment to Microsoft Games Studios following Bungie's fulfillment of the terms of their existing contract. Under the terms of that contract, Bungie owed MGS two more full retail releases. Bungie had previously established a precedent of releasing a new retail release every three years. However, once they negotiated the terms of their freedom from Microsoft, Bungie released ODST only two years after the release of Halo 3. Now, Bungie's Halo: Reach is due out in 2010, three years after Halo 3 and only one year after Halo3: ODST. Thus, it appears that Bungie's real motivation with their current release schedule is to extract itself from the MGS contract as soon as possible. In fact, Bungie has already entered into an agreement with Activision to publish their future games, which will not be Halo games (MGS retains the license for that franchise) and will almost certainly be released for both the 360 and PS3.
So, whether because of legitimate delays or the sheer force of MW2, gamers have experienced the strongest lineup for a first half of a year in the history of gaming. But, why are there so many top titles scheduled to come out in the second half of 2010? The short answer to that question is that there is not a killer title due out during 2010's holiday season. Halo: Reach will, obviously, be a big mover and will bring Bungie and Microsoft tons of cash, but, with the release of a third Halo title from Bungie in the last four years, there can be legitimate questions raised regarding Reach's quality (especially in light of Bungie's motivation for releasing this game, as discussed in the preceding paragraph) and the demand for yet another Halo game (although, it will be the last Bungie-made Halo game). CoD: Black Ops will sell very well, but Treyarch will always be considered the little brother of the CoD series and the fact is that other developers and publishers are simply not fearful of a Treyarch release. Grand Turismo 5 is starting to look a lot like Duke Nukem: Forever, and is highly unlikely to scare off anyone since few expect it to actually be released in 2010.
Additionally, some titles will be released regardless of the competition for various reasons. Sony and Microsoft need SOCOM 4 and Fable III to come out this year so that they will have at least one AAA title that will utilize their new, motion control devices. Fallout: New Vegas is being developed by the creators of the Fallout series, Obsidian Entertainment, and published by developer of Fallout 3, Bethesda. It is likely that Bethesda has been working on Fallout 4 or Oblivion 2 and needs to have F:NV released well in advance of Bethesda's next title. If Grand Turismo 5 slips, Sony could be putting their holiday season on the backs of LittleBigPlanet 2 and The Last Guardian. Since LBP 2 is somewhat of a niche game and TLG is a new IP, bet the house that Sony will be announcing Resistance 3 as a holiday release at E3.
Conclusion
2010 has been and will continue to be a monster year for video game releases, but, as discussed above, this has not been the natural progression of the video game industry, but rather has been the result of a perfect storm of influences coming together to cluster top releases in this year.
But, what does that mean we can expect in 2011? Is there anything left? How have recent changes in the industry influenced what we will see in 2011? Check back in two weeks when we will delve into the prospects for AAA releases in 2011.
In this first part of this article, we will explore 2010. Are we really seeing a significant departure from the release schedules of prior years? If so, how did circumstances converge to create this anomaly? In the second part of the article, we will explore the prospects for 2011. What AAA titles can we expect to see when so many of the biggest developers are releasing titles in 2010? What other factors will make it more or less likely that we will see top titles in 2011?
Is 2010 Really That Strong of a Year?
Most gamers define the best year for video game releases based on when the games that suit their particular tastes were released. For instance, most of my friends primarily play shooters on the 360. As a result, when I ask them what was the best year of video game releases in this console generation, they instantly respond “2007” (Halo 3, CoD 4). On the other hand, when I ask my PS3 friends that same question, they respond with “2008” (Metal Gear Solid 4, LittleBigPlanet, Resistance 2). So, to understand the relative strength of a year’s releases, I compiled a list of the top releases for each year since 2006 (the launch year of the PS3). Keep in mind that these are the most anticipated and most successful games of each year and may not include every big release. Further, due to personal bias, I do not include any Wii releases.
2006: Oblivion (360); Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter (360); Gears of War (360); Resistance (PS3); Rainbow Six: Vegas (360)
2007: Bioshock (360); Halo 3 (360); The Orange Box (360); Call of Duty 4 (360, PS3); Assassin’s Creed (360, PS3); Uncharted (PS3); Mass Effect (360)
2008: Devil May Cry 4 (360, PS3); Rainbow Six: Vegas 2 (360, PS3); Army of Two (360, PS3); Grand Theft Auto IV (360, PS3); Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3); Battlefield: Bad Company (360, PS3); Fable II (360); Fallout 3 (360, PS3); LittleBigPlanet (PS3); Resistance 2 (PS3); Gears of War 2 (360); Call of Duty: World at War (360, PS3)
2009: Street Fighter IV (360, PS3); Killzone 2 (PS3); Resident Evil 5 (360, PS3); inFamous (PS3); Batman: Arkham Asylum (360, PS3); Halo 3: ODST (360); Uncharted 2 (PS3); CoD: Modern Warfare 2 (360, PS3); Assassin’s Creed II (360, PS3)
2010: Mass Effect 2 (360); MAG (PS3); BioShock 2 (360, PS3); Heavy Rain (PS3); BF: Bad Company 2 (360, PS3); Final Fantasy XIII (360, PS3); God of War III (PS3); Super Street Fighter IV (360, PS3); Alan Wake (360); Red Dead Redemption (360, PS3). Scheduled to release by the end of the year: Medal of Honor (360, PS3); CoD: Black Ops (360, PS3); Agent (PS3); Batman: Arkham Asylum 2 (360, PS3); Fable III (360); Fallout: New Vegas (360, PS3); The Last Guardian (PS3); Gran Turismo 5 (PS3); Halo: Reach (360); LittleBigPlanet 2 (PS3); SOCOM 4 (PS3)
A couple of other observations that I made when putting these lists together: (1) all but one of 2007’s top releases were released in the fourth quarter of the year, so we collectively waited nine months for something to play, while 2009 saw the release of nearly half of its top titles before Q4 ; (2) as the years have passed, it is harder and harder for new IPs to break into the list of top titles; (3) exclusive titles are strongly represented, which makes sense considering that Microsoft and Sony are increasingly advertising their exclusive games rather than the features of the consoles.
There are 20 AAA titles scheduled to be released this year. That tops the previous high of this console generation (2008) by nine titles. While not everyone will agree with the titles that I have defined as AAA titles, it is clear that 2010 is going to be a monster year for video game releases, and this is before the announcements of E3, which will likely add additional 2010 releases to the list (Resistance 3, Killzone 3).
Additionally, there are more than a few games that are due out in 2010 that just failed to make the list (Crackdown 2, Dead Rising 2).
While some of these titles that have been announced for 2010 will slip into 2011 (GT 5), even taking this into account, regardless of what console you own, what kind of games you like, or any other factor you want to add to the consideration, 2010 will be the greatest year of consistent video game releases of this console generation.
How Did This Happen?
So, how is it that so many top games are scheduled to be released in the same year? Part of the explanation is simply the natural growth of the industry. Prior to 2009, every year saw a growth in the number of AAA titles released. This growth has occurred because of the greater understanding of the money that can be made in the video games industry, the progress of the PS3, and more risk averse developers and publishers that have chosen, because of the financial stakes, to invest in top series rather than developing new IPs.
Another factor is Modern Warfare 2. A lot of gamers, like myself, would love to think that 2010 was when developers and publishers finally started scheduling releases throughout the year like the movie industry does, rather than the legacy method of marketing video games like a toy (i.e., clustering releases around the gift-giving season). Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case. 2008 seemed to be moving the industry in this direction, and 2009 actually saw more AAA releases before the holiday season than during it. But, many of the Q1 releases of 2010 were initially announced as 2009 holiday releases. While development delays can always explain a delayed release, it can also be used as a good excuse to avoid competing head-to-head with another title. Modern Warfare 2 was the best selling video game in the history of the industry and everyone, inside and outside the industry, knew that it was going to be HUGE. If you are DICE, developer of Bad Company 2 and a direct competitor of MW2, how much sense does it make to put your game, that you have invested the future of your company into, out in the same launch window as MW2? Even if you have a different kind of game, like BioWare's Mass Effect 2, do you really want to compete with MW2 for the attention of the game-buying public? Clearly, the November 2009 release of MW2 has played a major role in the bounty that gamers have received in early 2010.
In fact, the only AAA first person shooter that was willing to go head-to-head with MW2 in the second half of 2009 was Bungie's Halo 3: ODST, but Bungie's motivation to release their competing title had little to do with ensuring the success of their title.
Soon after the release of Halo 3, Bungie negotiated a release from their commitment to Microsoft Games Studios following Bungie's fulfillment of the terms of their existing contract. Under the terms of that contract, Bungie owed MGS two more full retail releases. Bungie had previously established a precedent of releasing a new retail release every three years. However, once they negotiated the terms of their freedom from Microsoft, Bungie released ODST only two years after the release of Halo 3. Now, Bungie's Halo: Reach is due out in 2010, three years after Halo 3 and only one year after Halo3: ODST. Thus, it appears that Bungie's real motivation with their current release schedule is to extract itself from the MGS contract as soon as possible. In fact, Bungie has already entered into an agreement with Activision to publish their future games, which will not be Halo games (MGS retains the license for that franchise) and will almost certainly be released for both the 360 and PS3.
So, whether because of legitimate delays or the sheer force of MW2, gamers have experienced the strongest lineup for a first half of a year in the history of gaming. But, why are there so many top titles scheduled to come out in the second half of 2010? The short answer to that question is that there is not a killer title due out during 2010's holiday season. Halo: Reach will, obviously, be a big mover and will bring Bungie and Microsoft tons of cash, but, with the release of a third Halo title from Bungie in the last four years, there can be legitimate questions raised regarding Reach's quality (especially in light of Bungie's motivation for releasing this game, as discussed in the preceding paragraph) and the demand for yet another Halo game (although, it will be the last Bungie-made Halo game). CoD: Black Ops will sell very well, but Treyarch will always be considered the little brother of the CoD series and the fact is that other developers and publishers are simply not fearful of a Treyarch release. Grand Turismo 5 is starting to look a lot like Duke Nukem: Forever, and is highly unlikely to scare off anyone since few expect it to actually be released in 2010.
Additionally, some titles will be released regardless of the competition for various reasons. Sony and Microsoft need SOCOM 4 and Fable III to come out this year so that they will have at least one AAA title that will utilize their new, motion control devices. Fallout: New Vegas is being developed by the creators of the Fallout series, Obsidian Entertainment, and published by developer of Fallout 3, Bethesda. It is likely that Bethesda has been working on Fallout 4 or Oblivion 2 and needs to have F:NV released well in advance of Bethesda's next title. If Grand Turismo 5 slips, Sony could be putting their holiday season on the backs of LittleBigPlanet 2 and The Last Guardian. Since LBP 2 is somewhat of a niche game and TLG is a new IP, bet the house that Sony will be announcing Resistance 3 as a holiday release at E3.
Conclusion
2010 has been and will continue to be a monster year for video game releases, but, as discussed above, this has not been the natural progression of the video game industry, but rather has been the result of a perfect storm of influences coming together to cluster top releases in this year.
But, what does that mean we can expect in 2011? Is there anything left? How have recent changes in the industry influenced what we will see in 2011? Check back in two weeks when we will delve into the prospects for AAA releases in 2011.
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