Project Natas - Because It Won't Last Forever

By Natas46

In part one of this article (if you missed it, it can be found HERE), I made the case that 2010 has been and will remain unprecedentedly strong in terms of video game releases and discussed some of the reasons for this development. In part two, we will explore the resultant effect that having such a strong 2010 will have on what games will be offered to us next year. As before, because tastes vary, the highly anticipated games discussed in this article are based solely on my perception of what is generally highly anticipated.

What Do We Know is Coming in 2011?

E3 has come and gone and we now have a very clear picture of what is coming through 2010 and details have started to emerge regarding what to expect in 2011. A list of the top games announced with a 2011 release date includes:

Ghost Recon: Future Soldier (360, PS3); Metal Gear Solid: Rising (360, PS3); Gears of War 3 (360); Modern Warfare 3 (360, PS3); Killzone 3 (PS3); Infamous 2 (PS3); Mass Effect 3 (360, PS3); Arkham Asylum 2 (360, PS3); Bioshock 3 (360, PS3); Forza 4 (360).

Certainly, that is not a sparse list of top titles, but it does pale in comparison to what we have seen and will see this year. Additionally, there are a couple of titles on the list above that need to be addressed more specifically.

The first of these is Modern Warfare 3. For our casual gaming friends and gamers that don't stay on top of the news from the video game industry, many of the top talent from Infinity Ward, developers of the Modern Warfare games in the CoD franchise, left publisher Activision over a contract dispute soon after the release of MW2. Thus, while MW3 will almost assuredly release under the name Infinity Ward, it will be a different group developing the game. This may not really affect sales or anticipation (Treyarch-developed World at War sold extremely well and was highly anticipated), but it could very well affect the overall quality of the game that is ultimately released. Even if the quality of the game is comparable, I would be shocked if Activision allows the new IW to develop a new engine, so the game will likely feel very similar to MW2.

Additionally, I am very wary of Mass Effect 3 and Bioshock 3. Both of these series had games release this year and are now scheduled to release follow-ups next year. That seems like quite a quick turn around. As a result, expect that these games will either be delayed or will be nominally different iterations of the games that were released this year.

However, the biggest reason for concern regarding 2011 is that arguably the three top developers in the industry will not be releasing any new games during the year. Bungie will satisfy the terms of its contract with Microsoft Games Studios with the release of Halo: Reach and, while they have signed a deal with Activision, there is no reasonable way to imagine that they will be able to release a quality game in such a short period. In fact, Bungie has indicated that it will not even announce its new IP until next year's E3. Further, as discussed above, the former employees of Infinity Ward have broken off and formed Respawn Studio, but they too are doubtful to be able to release anything within the 2011 calendar year (especially since it appears that Activision retains the rights to the CoD engine). In addition, DICE, developer of the Battlefield series, released a full retail release in 2010 and are developing the multiplayer aspect of the upcoming 2010 release, Medal of Honor. So, it is highly unlikely that we will see any sort of full release from DICE either. Thus, the biggest guns in the biggest video gaming genre, first person shooters, will not be releasing a game in 2011.

So, Might This Make Room for Some New IPs?

Absolutely. There are a few new IPs that have been announced for 2011 and there will certainly be more to come. Bulletstorm, Rage, and I Am Alive have already been announced for 2011 and each looks real promising. In addition, PC stalwart Deus Ex will see the series's first console release with Deus Ex 3. These titles have the potential to become franchises for their respective developers, but we all know that not all of these new IPs will succeed. Interestingly, three of the developers of these new titles are either new (People Can Fly with Bulletstorm), old and frequently thought dead (id. with Rage), or changing platforms (Eidos Montreal with Deus Ex 3). It could be that having the "Big 3" out of the picture in 2011 could open the door to new developers wowing us gamers with new IPs. Of course, it could also mean that we will find ourselves continuing to play 2010 games through 2011.

Is There Any Hope?

Yes. For starters, we are seventeen months away from the 2011 holiday season, so we can expect that many more games will be announced for release at that time. At least a few of these will be highly anticipated by gamers, even if the primary reason for anticipation is the dearth of anything else to play. Also, prolonged periods of no highly anticipated releases have historically led to titles making the jump onto this list and becoming franchises (Bioshock, Arkham Asylum). Thus, by this time next year, we could be talking about Bulletstorm in the same manner that we were talking about Arkham Asylum last year.

Can We Draw Conclusions About a Year-Round Release Schedule?

This one is tough to nail down. Based on what has been said at this year's E3, the first half of 2011 appears to have a strong slate of releases scheduled. However, I find it hard to believe that, with the issues discussed above, all of these scheduled releases will, in fact, release when currently scheduled. To me, the biggest question is whether Gears 3 will actually release in April. Microsoft has essentially given up on the top notch exclusive front lately and, if Gears 3 releases in April, there does not appear to be a 360 exclusive strong enough to carry Microsoft's 2011 holidays. Additionally, I can't see the logic behind Epic releasing its signature shooter within months of its new shooter, Bulletstorm (while developed by PMF, Epic bought PMF last year). Surprisingly, with the announcement that Resistance and Ratchet and Clank developers, Insomniac Games, are going multiplatform, Sony may very well find itself in the same boat, which could lead to the delayed release of Killzone 3. Thus, while it appears that the hardware guys and publishers want to embrace releasing video games on a year-round basis, current circumstances and the legacy belief that each console maker has to release at least one top exclusive each holiday season could prevent (or water down) the trend.

Conclusion

There is reason for hope in 2011, but that hope depends onthe absence of the “Big Dogs” leaving room for new IPs to add to our overall gaming goodness. However, if these prospects don't develop, 2011 could be the gaming version of a barren wasteland with only the occasional oasis.